Prospects and Scenarios 2010

Дата: 06.02.2010
Опубликовано на EGF: 02.24.2010

 

Prospects and Scenarios 2010




Leading experts have shared their views on how some of Europe’s core geopolitical challenges are likely to pan out during 2010 and beyond in the 1st online session organised by the European Geopolitical Forum!


The Forum started 16 February, Tuesday at 12.00am (CET) and ran through till 20 February, Saturday 12.00am (CET).

Context:

At the end of December 1999, as the world prepared to usher in a new Millennium, in Europe and other parts of the planet, there was widespread concern that the so called “Millennium Bug” would strike, causing unforeseen disruption and havoc. Ten years on, in December of last year, for many in Europe, the Millennium Bug was just a shade in the memory as a far more ominous concern was pressing home – the prospect of another gas crisis. Although the fact that the Russia-Ukraine gas dispute of January 2009 – and its knock-on effect of leaving much of Europe without natural gas in the peak of winter – did not repeat itself during the record cold European temperatures of January this year, the very fact that European attention has become so focused on this theme demonstrates how geopolitical developments in the European hinterlands have come to impact the day-to-day livelihood of all Europeans.

As Europe enters the new decade, its political leadership will have little choice but to embrace numerous geopolitical challenges. The enlarged European Union (EU), with its Brussels based institutions, now borders the former-Soviet Union and has recently shown its intent of becoming a more global player: resulting in the need to effectively manage its relationship with other centres of international power. That being said, while Russia’s Gazprom did not turn off the gas supply to Ukraine last month, Europe’s energy security concerns have hardly been alleviated. There is still much uncertainty about the nature of the EU’s relationship with the so called “Eastern Partnership” countries – six westerly located former-Soviet republics – which appear to be longer-term candidates for EU, and possibly NATO, membership. The uncertainty will be underscored further shortly, as a more “Russia-friendly” president is bound to take power in Ukraine. The stability of the Caucasus remains under question, Black Sea governance institutions remain underdeveloped, while the Caspian remains a geopolitical playground of increasing concern for Europe’s security, broadly defined.

Furthermore, while Europe’s geopolitical challenges are being evidently discussed in terms of its eastern approaches, the importance of the Continent’s softer underbelly should not be underestimated. The Mediterranean south bank countries are increasingly becoming an area of significance in the fight against terrorism and Islamic extremism, and the interrelated challenges of illegal migration, smuggling and trafficking activities. Nor should the rising importance of the Arctic, as an arena capable of alleviating many of Europe’s current geopolitical challenges, particularly in the energy sphere, be ignored.

In order to discuss these and other related European geopolitical challenges the European Geopolitical Forum hold its 1st online session.

Visit the discussions' page.