Ukraine foreign policy briefing

Опубликовано на EGF: 08.10.2008

by Dr. Marat Terterov

Key issues:

1. European integration. Ukraine is looking to consolidate upon its so-called “European perspective” and there seems to be notable consensus both within the country’s political structures and amongst Ukraine’s European partners that this is, indeed, Kiev’s logical evolution. The question is rather one of how far and how soon. The EU has traditionally placed its relations with Ukraine into the same category of ties as with those states lying on Europe’s periphery (ie, the European Neighbourhood Policy) and not necessarily embracing an EU membership perspective. Ukraine has, however, advocated the need to have its relations with the EU formalised through the framework of an Association Agreement, similar to that which Brussels accords to countries which are on an unequivocal membership road-path. This was achieved to some degree during the EU-Ukraine Summit in Paris on September 9th. However, many of the details of implementation of the agreement still need to be fine tuned, as Kiev still seeks to establish the terms of its EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA), legislative harmonisation, internal reform processes, visa dialogue and other issues before any form of genuine membership perspective can start to be discussed.

2. NATO membership. This is both a sensitive and tricky foreign policy aspect with notable resonance for Ukraine, Russia and the EU (not to mention the US and the NATO alliance itself). Following Russia’s invasion of Georgia last August, the jury is out as to whether the most effective means of dealing with Russia’s newfound bellicosity is to rush Ukraine towards a NATO membership roadmap (by offering it a clearly outlined Membership Action Plan (MAP), or to suspend further expansion of the alliance at the EU’s current borders with the CIS. In the meantime, while the Ukrainian government’s efforts to persuade the domestic population that NATO is not an expansionist military bloc may not have appeared convincing prior to the Georgian war, more Ukrainians may now be succumbing to the view that the alliance can play a role in guaranteeing its security after the Russian invasion (of Georgia).

3. Political instability. Much of Europe viewed Ukraine with great admiration during the Orange Revolution of 2004—05. However, given Kiev’s chronic political instability, Ukraine these days tends to be viewed more with disappointment. While political instability within the country does not have appeared to hamper economic growth, the country’s political landscape is presently split by two centres of executive power which spend much of their time seeking to nullify one another. This creates political uncertainty, primarily in Ukraine’s dealing with the outside world and hampers its EU and NATO perspectives.

4. Outlook. While the roots of Ukraine’s current political problems are home grown, the resulting dilemma is that the country is viewed by Moscow as an unreliable partner simultaneously to Kiev being seen as an unpredictable partner by Brussels. Ukraine is now in a highly sensitive position and needs to take a clearer position of where it sees its place in the world. It has yet to complete its cycle of democratic, economic and institutional reforms which impede its integration into the Euro-Atlantic structures on the one hand, whilst also paralysing its capability of countering political influence and economic pressures from Moscow on the other.

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