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North African Security Outlook: Trans-national Islamic Extremism in the MaghrebОпубликовано на EGF: 13.03.2009 by Публикация EGF Maghreb terror threat escalated to regional level The North African Arab Maghreb and Sahel-Saharan region is becoming increasingly vulnerable to security threats posed by Islamic extremism and brazen acts of terror. Since the high profile merger of the Algerian Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC) with Al Qaeda led to the formation of Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) in January 2007, the threat has taken on an increasingly regional dimension. Prior to the merger of the two groups, Islamic insurgency in the Maghreb was predominantly comprised of local struggles waged by national Islamic movements. The most well known amongst such organisations was Algeria’s Islamic Salvation Front (FIS), together with militant organisations such as the notorious Groupe Islamique Arme (GIA) and the GSPC. Although Algeria slipped into the chaos of civil war which claimed the lives of up to 150,000 civilians during the 1990s, widespread insurgency was largely contained within one country. Following the establishment of AQIM, Al Qaeda’s modus operandi has spread noticeably throughout the region. This is evident through continuous and coordinated lethal suicide bombings aimed at civilian and foreign targets, the alarmingly high casualty rates stemming from such attacks, numerous kidnappings and an active propaganda campaign propelling the message of Jihad to the region’s discontented population sectors. National authorities in the Maghreb have been forced to become increasingly vigilant in the wake of the growing threat. In Algeria, extensive military operations involving thousands of troops have been underway in recent months, as spiralling violence has elevated security to the core of the political agenda ahead of April’s presidential elections. The Moroccan authorities have dismantled numerous terrorist cells linked to Al Qaeda during 2008, involving sweeping arrests of scores of terror suspects. In Mauritania, a country gripped by political instability following a military coup last August, extremists linked to AQIM have killed foreign tourists and launched attacks against the Israeli embassy. Tunisia continues to hand out jail sentences Fresh round of attacks by Al Qaeda terrorist cells in Algeria Clashes between Islamic militants and the military continue to dominate the security landscape in Algeria in 2009. On March 16 four Algerian soldiers were killed and four others wounded after a terrorist attack on an army convoy in Tizi Ouzou province. Ten days earlier, a suicide bomber struck a communal guard barracks in Tadmait, killing two people, including a female civilian. On February 22 ten security guards working for a Sonelgaz subsidiary were killed after a terrorist attack near Ziama Mansouriah in Jijel province, 350km east of Algiers. It was reported that an unknown number of terrorists attacked the guards with rocket-propelled grenades. Several days earlier, two separate terror attacks in Boumerdès and Tebessa left 8 Algerian soldiers dead, including three soldiers killed in an ambush set by terrorists in Bordj Menail, Boumerdès province. AQIM claimed responsibility for no less than nine separate attacks in February, which included suicide bombings, road-side ambushes and attacks on security compounds. Algeria saw a steady stream of terrorist attacks in 2008, with local sources suggesting that an average of four attacks per month took place in the country during the year. August was a particularly bloody month, one of the deadliest in Algeria’s recent history. Twelve attacks were carried out across the country in total by Jihadist groups – including three suicide bombings – claiming the lives of over 100 people and injuring many more. In the following month, security forces claimed to have thwarted a possible September 11 “anniversary” terrorist attack in eastern Algeria, as thousands of army troops and police conducted anti-terror sweeps throughout the North African country. Algerian Communication Minister, Abderrachid Boukerzaza, confirmed the crackdowns stating that anti-terrorism operations were under way in the whole country. According to the Algerian military, the current sweeps were more akin to combat operations rather than military raids, underscoring the severe nature of the insurgency faced by the government. The difference between the two is that combat operations are themselves comprised of several military raids and can last for months. The situation in the country remains highly volatile in the first months of 2009. Government confidence building measures amidst pre-electoral terror threat With the Algerian presidential elections scheduled for April 9, the government has been seeking to build confidence about the state of security in the country by announcing its counter-terrorism successes. On March 2, French-language state radio announced Interior Minister, Yazid Zerhouni, confirming that Algerian troops killed seven armed fighters in Larbaâ, Blida province, Tout sur l’Algerie. Other successful raids against AQIM have been claimed by the government in February and March. According to Zerhouni, Algerian security forces have killed 136 AQIM fighters since the suicide bombing of a police academy in Issers in August 2008, which left more than people 40 dead. Another 322 militants have been arrested and their weapons confiscated, whilst others have surrendered in order to benefit from the amnesties mandated by the national reconciliation measures adopted by Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika in March 2006. The government has also actively pronounced the deaths of several of AQIM’s key brigade leaders, including the killing of Omar Ben Titraoui, alias Yahia Abou Khaitima, Emir of the Fatah brigade, in a shootout with security services near Boumerdes on February 5. The Fatah brigade, which relies on blackmail and extortion for financing, is one of the pillars of AQIM’s operations in Algeria. In an operation between Boumerdes and Tizi Ouzou on March 13, Algerian army troops killed Mourad Mesrour, who had recently replaced Ali Ben Touati, aka Abou Tamim, as head of AQIM’s Al Ansar brigade. The Algeria’s predicament: more terror with fewer insurgents There can be little doubt that Algeria faces a considerable terror threat despite the government’s best efforts to contain the militants and reel in those in their ranks who have chosen to repent under the process of the Charter for Peace and National Reconciliation. This does not necessarily mean, however, that the Algerian insurgency is growing in size. Despite the fighting and numerous casualties, violence has not resumed to its early 1990s level when the Groupe Islamique Armé (GIA) was controlling entire regions of the country and decimating resisting villages. It was estimated that there were as many as 27,000 combatants waging the Jihad in Algeria during the early-to-mid 1990s. These numbers fell to around 4,000 fighters by 2002, most of whom were linked to the GSPC. At the end of 2008, estimates of the number of AQIM combatants range from around 300 to slightly over 1,000. It is either a paradox or a testimony to the effectiveness of its tactical strategies that despite the substantially fewer combatants, AQIM has been able to inflict an insurgency of notable magnitude in North Africa’s largest country. Under the leadership of Abdelmalek Droukdel, leader of the GSPC from 2004 before becoming the head of AQIM upon its foundation in January 2007, Al Qaeda has cultivated a strategic shift in the Algerian insurgency from conducting guerrilla operations to waging wholesale terror. Inspired by the return of several “Iraqi alumni” who began to transfer their know-how into the Algerian Jihad, the preferred tactic of AQIM has become wholesale use of explosives, particularly through suicide attacks. This became apparent during 2007 when AQIM suicide bombers carried out brazen attacks in April and December of that year – the second of which targeted the UN compound in Algiers – and collectively left 95 people dead and close to 500 injured. Indiscriminate violence has become the norm in Algeria since that time and up to 98% of AQIM’s victims have been civilians. Experts have suggested that Abdelmalek Droukdel ordered AQIM to carry out its April 2007 suicide bombings in Algiers predominantly as a show of loyalty to Osama Bin Laden. A number of analysts have referred to this as the “copy-cat effect” from Al Qaeda’s modus operandi elsewhere, mainly in Iraq, the terrorist landscape of which is to some degree now bearing resemblance to that of Algeria. High profile terror arrests sweep Morocco Although the conflict between extremists and the authorities in Algeria has yet to spill over into neighbouring Morocco, the national terror threat rating accorded to the country within the Moroccan Ministry of Interior remains high. A series of high profile terror arrests has swept Morocco during 2008 and is continuing at present. The presence of Interior Minister, Chakib Benmoussa, announcing arrests of terror suspects linked to AQIM and other terrorist cells has become a frequent occurrence in the Moroccan press since the beginning of last year. In February of 2008 the crackdown on the The dismantling and ongoing trial of the Belliraj cell has caused widespread controversy both in Morocco and Europe, not least due to the Moroccan authorities’ allegations that Abdelkader Belliraj had worked as an informant for the Belgian security services for up to eight years. Interior Minister Benmoussa referred to Belliraj as the “a master of deception” who had lived in Afghanistan in 2001 and in Algeria, among members of the GSPC, in 2005. The Belliraj cell allegedly smuggled the largest weapons cache to be discovered in Morocco in 15 years, brought to the country from Belgium by other Moroccan citizens residing in that country. Lack of confidence in anti-terrorism measures, despite the crackdowns Following the sweeping arrests of the Belliraj cell in February, in May of last year a further terrorist group with 11 members plotting attacks on Morocco and Belgium was also dismantled. In July Moroccan security services announced the arrests of up to 35 members of a terrorist network specialising in the recruitment of volunteers for branches In December Moroccan security services announced that they had disrupted another terrorist plot attempting to establish guerrilla training camps and procure weapons financed by bank robberies. The five terrorists arrested in Berkane in association with this plot were described by Benmoussa as “Salafist Jihadists” seeking to join AQIM. Other arrests in connection with terrorism have been taking place in Fes and Rabat, with members of the dismantled cells described as associates of the Al Hijra Wa Attakfir movement who were planning to travel to Algeria en route to Afghanistan and Iraq to join Terrorism threat exacerbated by Morocco’s social and economic concerns Although the wave of arrests and dismantling of terrorist cells may point to the effectiveness and vigilance of the Moroccan security services, the trend is a highly troublesome one for the country. Surveys conducted by research centres allude to Moroccans perceiving that terrorism can strike anywhere and any time. Anti-terrorism experts concede that there is little cause for optimism in the current climate, which is further exacerbated by Morocco’s ominous social and economic problems, including the rising tide of fraud and corruption. Reports by Transparency International show that Moroccans believe the government is not doing nearly enough to eradicate ubiquitous corruption. Morocco’s current position on Transparency International’s world corruption ranking is a lowly 72nd out of 80 countries surveyed. The level of trust placed in mainstream government officials is very low and the likelihood of bureaucrats being infiltrated by terrorist plotters is high. As part of the outcome of this vicious cycle, terrorist cells are able to strike before the authorities can react, which was evident in a major terrorist act in Casablanca in 2003. Tension remains high. Faith in the government’s anti-terrorism measures, despite the flurry of activity by the security forces, is much lower than comfort levels. Even when the authorities ruled out terrorism as the cause of a deadly explosion in a Casablanca video arcade earlier this month, few people seemed to be convinced that the powerful blast was caused by non-terror related factors. Clashes between militants and the army continue in Mauritania Political instability, weak institutions of governance and widespread poverty continue to provide a strong basis for Islamic extremists to cause havoc in Mauritania. The overthrow of democratically elected Mauritanian President Sidi Mohamed Cheikh Ould Abdellahi in a military coup led by General Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz last August, was preceded by multiple terrorist raids and clashes between extremists and the Mauritanian security services. The three most prominent cases of Islamic extremist violence in the country at around that time included the murder of four French tourists, the killing of a number of government soldiers and an armed attack on the Israeli embassy in Nouakchott. AQIM has claimed responsibility for killing the soldiers, and two of the suspects arrested in connection with the murder of the French tourists have also confessed to being members of the terror group. Three people, including a French woman and the two owners of a nearby night club, were wounded in the attack on the embassy although no fatalities occurred. Armed Mauritanian soldiers sealed the embassy off afterwards, although it was already protected by concrete blocks which prevented the attackers from getting any closer. It was reported in the local press that the attack on the Israeli embassy followed a campaign by several Mauritanian political parties to cut diplomatic ties with Israel. Mauritania is one of the few Arab League countries to have official relations with the Jewish state. Although the Mauritanian president of the time, Mohamed Abdellahi claimed that there is no terrorist organisation in the country, the wave of terror caused the cancellation of the Dakar Rally. The event was cancelled for the first time in its 30 year history, amidst the organisers’ concern over the security environment in Mauritania. Eight of the endurance race’s 16 stages were planned to be held in Mauritania prior to the terrorist attacks of the time. Presence of Al Qaeda in Mauritania likely Mauritanian army units continue to be engaged in regular clashes with armed groups affiliated with AQIM. Police and military units have been responding to frequent car bomb threats and intelligence tip offs that elements of Al Qaeda were planning to carry out attacks in the capital. Mauritanian army patrols have come under attack by gunmen in the northern Zouerate region, with casualties reported. Further attacks by AQIM on the Israeli embassy in Nouakchott were prevented in December by Mauritanian police. The attacks against the Israeli embassy were apparently masterminded by the self-identified Mauritanian leader of the AQIM branch in the country, Al Khadim Oueld Slimane, who claims to have trained at four different times at GSPC bases in Algeria. Towards the end of last year Mauritanian security services disabled a terror network providing logistical support to AQIM, arresting nine suspects including two teachers, one of them from Aleg, the town near which the four French tourists were murdered in December 2007. The detainees allegedly belong to the Al Jamaa Salavia Lilbayaa group, whose leader El Khadim Ould Semman and other key members were arrested in July 2008. The group is also linked to the attacks against the Israeli embassy. In November, five terrorists linked to AQIM were sentenced to prison by a Mauritanian court. Abdellahi Ould El Moctar, Hakim Mohamed Ould M’Bareck and Ahmed Ould Hadi, who received Al Qaeda suspects jailed in Tunisia Further reinforcing the view that the threat posed by Islamic extremism in the Maghreb is of regional nature, is the fact that two of the seven suspects charged with carrying out the attacks on the Israeli embassy in Nouakchott were Tunisians. While Tunisia itself has been spared of the chronic violence taking place in neighbouring Maghreb and Sahel-Saharan countries, Tunisian lawyers assert that more than 1,000 people have been imprisoned in the country on terrorism charges during the last five years. Clashes between militants and government forces have been more sporadic than in neighbouring Algeria, although arrests and imprisonment of suspects linked to Al Qaeda and other terror cells remain common place. Amongst the most high profile cases taking place in 2008 was the conviction by a Tunisian court of 17 men to jail sentences of up to 12 years for creating a terror cell linked to AQIM. Another two Tunisians were recently convicted for participating in the December 2006 and January 2007 clashes with security forces and for being members of the Soldiers of Assan Ibn Al Fourat terrorist group. Mohamed Mahmoudi, 22, and Tarek Hammami, 32, received 12 and 15 years in prison, respectively, while seven other men received five year jail terms for assisting the group and trying to enter Algeria. Mahmoudi and Hammami were arrested in 2006 upon their return from Algeria, where they are believed to have undergone arms and combat training with AQIM. Up to 14 people, including a soldier and a police officer, were killed in the clashes with Mahmoudi, Hammami and the other defendants. Libyan authorities remain vigilant in wake of anticipated attacks Libyan Islamic extremists have a history of “searching for Jihad” beyond the borders of their own country, rather than actively confronting the hard line regime of Maummar Qaddafi. During the 1990s, some of the best fighters of Libya’s home grown LIFG Jihad movement, who had already seen combat in Afghanistan, readily joined the ranks of the GIA in Algeria to fight in the civil war. When Iraq became the centre stage for Al Qaeda’s war against America In Libya itself, although the LIFG has recently renounced violence in return for amnesty pledges from the Qaddafi regime, experts conclude that the present wave of Libyan Jihadists no longer seek to reach Iraq to fight the Americans. They are becoming more active inside the country, and, in a worrying sign for the Libyan authorities, are inspired by Al Qaeda’s ideology. Although there are no certain links between extremists operating within Libya and AQIM, a number of terror cells have been broken up recently, especially in the eastern region of the country. One such extremist group was thought to have been training with Maghreb militants prevented from launching attacks in Europe Parallel to sweeping arrests and crackdowns against militants taking place throughout the Maghreb, European authorities have also found themselves involved in containing North African Islamic extremists. Last November Belgian security services arrested 6 Moroccans and one Algerian for alleged links to the Moroccan Belliraj terrorist network. A further four people were arrested by Belgian police, whilst documents and computers were seized during raids on houses in Brussels, Tongres, Nivelles and Arlon. In March, Amsterdam police arrested seven Dutch-Moroccans on terrorism charges one day after receiving a tip from a Belgian informant. The six men and one woman, aged In December Italian police arrested two Moroccans suspected of planning bomb attacks on civilian and military targets in Milan and its outskirts. The suspects were identified as Rachid Ilhami, 31, a preacher at the Islamic Peace Cultural Centre in the nearby town of Macherio, and Gafir Abdelkader, 42. Italian anti-terrorist investigators claimed the suspects were preparing attacks on a supermarket in Seregno, a Milan police station and an immigration office. They allegedly belong to a Milan terror cell with possible links Maghreb anti-terrorism measures will require greater coordination The transnational threat now posed by Al Qaeda-inspired Islamic extremist groups is of grave concern for regional security in the Maghreb and Sahel-Sahara. Although Algeria remains the flash-point of the North African insurgency, counter-terrorism experts agree that terrorists can strike anytime, anywhere and quite often before the authorities have time to react. The completion of the merger of Algeria’s GSPC with Al Qaeda and the creation of AQIM has transformed the nature of the extremist threat in the Maghreb. Despite the fewer insurgent numbers in core regional countries like Algeria than during its civil war in the 1990s, militants have altered their strategy considerably, causing widespread loss of life from suicide bombings and explosions targeting civilians and foreigners. Militant organisations have also increasingly ventured into smuggling, drug trafficking, illegal migration and weapons trade, as they seek to expand their financial base and recruitment drive. The North African Maghreb region is badly in need of a security architecture capable of delivering a collective and coordinated response to the problem of terrorism and Islamic extremism. As emphasised by Abdelkader Messahel, Algerian Minister Delegate for Maghreb and African Affairs at a recent workshop on terrorism held in Algiers, “North African states have long been concerned with terrorism, but a coherent strategy should be adopted | Безопасность |
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