Публикации в Рынки
Геополитические Вызовы 2010: проблемы и сценарии  PDF  (333 Kb)

В конце декабря 1999 года, когда весь мир готовился к приходу нового тысячелетия, в Европе и других уголках планеты, распространялось опасение, что разразится так называемый «компьютерный сбой тысячелетия» («Проблема 2000 года»), последствия которого будут страшными и непредсказуемыми. Но уже через десять лет, в декабре прошлого 2009 года для многих в Европе, «Компьютерный сбой тысячелетия» стал лишь отдаленным воспоминанием на фоне другой, куда более актуальной проблемы, надвигавшейся на Европу - вероятности нового газового кризиса. Несмотря на то, что российско-украинский газовый цейтнот в январе 2009, вследствие которого большая часть территории Европы осталась без газа в самый разгар зимы, не повторился во время рекордно холодного января в Европе в нынешнем, 2010 году, сам факт того, что в настоящее время Европа уделяет особое внимание данному вопросу, служит лишним доказательством того, какое серьезное воздействие оказали геополитические события на прилегающих к Европе территориях на будничную жизнь всего европейского населения.

  • Марат Тертеров  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 05.06.2010  |  Международные отношения
  •  
New European Commission Members  PDF  (681 Kb)

Following approval by the European Parliament, the European Council today appointed the new European Commission for the period from 10 February 2010 to 31 October 2014. The Council also appointed Mr.Günther Oettinger to replace Mr.Andris Piebalgs as the Energy Commissioner. Please, see the full list of the new Commission Members.

  • European Commission  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 16.02.2010  |  Энергетика
  •  
GEORGIA AND THE SYSTEMIC IMPACT OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS  PDF  (139 Kb)

This paper analyses the potential effects that the systemic developments stemming from the global financial crisis and the August war are likely to have in Georgia, within a context of hegemonic stability theoretical fundamentals. According to this perspective, both events have undermined the role of the US as the sole world hegemon. As a result, the Western strategic priorities toward the Caucasus are likely to shift, to the detriment of the special relationship between the Saakashvili administration and the US. To demonstrate this, the analysis will focus on the case study provided by energy- and transit-related Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), as the Georgian political and economic dependence on a geopolitical rent is strongly connected to them and is likely to disappear in the aftermath of the recent events.

  • Marco Giuli  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 24.02.2010  |  Международные отношения
  •  
Russia in the global economic storm  PDF  (72 Kb)

Russia has been badly affected by the economic crisis, because in the boom years - when it was able to rely on oil and gas exports - it had not diversified its economic base or introduced any major structural economic reforms, speakers agreed at an EPC Policy Dialogue organised with the Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation and with World Bank support. They hoped the crisis would spur Moscow to introduce reforms, particularly to modernise the banking sector, public administration and governance structures.

  • Event Report  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 06.05.2009  |  Рынки
  •  
The World of Central Asian Oil and Gas. Power Politics, Market Forces, and Stealth Pipelines.  PDF  (531 Kb)

Key Issues:

  • Central Asia is beginning to see a genuine move away from barter deals towards commercial deals in accordance with market forces.
  • Contrary to much perceived wisdom, in Central Asia it is Gazprom, Russia’s natural gas export monopoly, that is leading the way in the movement towards market forces.
  • Central Asian natural gas and oil will to some extent be able to satisfy European demand, but available reserves and infrastructure will be insufficient to allow Central Asia to replace other gas and oil regions as primary suppliers to European markets.
  • Russian and Central Asian oil prices have already reached international levels, and the gas prices are moving in the direction of European levels.
  • However, transportation bottlenecks remain and infrastructure often remains insufficient for Central Asian gas, and to some extent oil, exports even to gain available market share in European markets. For exports elsewhere, such as to China or India, transportation bottlenecks still pose even greater problems.
  • Kazakhstan was expected to become a net exporter of natural gas in 2008. Although crude oil has been very important to the country’s economy, Kazakhstan must still import oil products for its own needs due to a lack of refinery capacity. Kazakhstan has since 2001-2002 quietly taken steps to reverse the large-scale privatisation of oil assets undertaken in the mid-1990s, and the Kazakhstani state is reasserting its dominant position versus the commercial actors.
  • Uzbekistan is self-sufficient in natural gas production but again needs to import oil. Even so, the country has great potential as an oil and natural gas exporter.
  • Turkmenistan already exports substantial volumes of both natural gas and oil. However, Turkmenistan has concluded so many agreements to export natural gas that the country will not be able to fulfil all export obligations.
  • Azerbaijan, in comparison, became a net exporter of natural gas in 2007 and is an established oil exporter. Crude oil has indeed been spectacularly important to the country’s economy.

  • Michael Fredholm  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 25.02.2010  |  Энергетика
  •  
1 2
Выберите регион