North Caucasus Security Outlook
Russia during the Putin (and now Putin-Medvedev) years has, to a good degree, been successful in casting an image of increasing national wealth, external power and domestic stability...
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Political Prognosis
The former-Yugoslav entity of Bosnia and Herzegovina is gripped by deep political crisis at present. Divisions between Serb, Croat and Bosniak (Bosnian Muslims) minorities are deepening inside the country, undermining the work and institutions of government, scuttling any sense of national unity and threatening to plunge Bosnia into the vortex of ethnic conflict...
Conventional Security Risks to Central Asia. A Summary Overview. (199 Kb)
This paper briefly outlines the conventional threats to the security of the five former Soviet states of Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. It also attempts to identify the common features contributing to insecurity in the region. The new and quite disturbing threat to regional insecurity – the growing risk of a spillover of insurgency into the region from Afghanistan is also discussed.
Turkey: Domestic Security Outlook
Key issues:
The Big Caucasus. Consequences of the "Five Day War", Threats and Political Prospects (1 Mb)
Sergey Markedonov, a prescient analyst of the Caucasus, assesses in this Xenophon Paper the possible implications of the August 2008 “five day war”. He initiates a discussion on the region’s “unfreezing of the conflicts” and provides an in-depth description of the existent non-recognised state entities and the other ethno-political conflicts with which the Caucasus is ridden. The author also explores the perspectives of major regional and extra-regional stakeholders in the area and the ambitious policies they deploy at the moment: the Russian stabilisation project, the American “Greater Middle East” project and the European Union social and economic (soft security) project...
North African Security Outlook: Trans-national Islamic Extremism in the Maghreb
Key issues:
Islamic Extremism as a Political Force (1 Mb)
|